Andorra

It is unlikely (roughly 2%) that Andorra will be directly involved in significant armed conflict within the next three years.

Very low risk. Expect routine governance and security dominated by civil protection, border/traffic management, and occasional disruption from weather or French/Spanish transport issues. The most plausible security incidents are cyber intrusions, fraud, or isolated criminal cases rather than organized political violence or armed clashes.

Low risk but slightly more exposed to Europe-wide shocks. A severe regional crisis affecting France/Spain (terrorism surge, major unrest, or interstate escalation) could raise indirect exposure through border controls, supply disruptions, and heightened policing. Cyber and hybrid pressure on small states will likely grow, but this still usually falls short of significant armed conflict.

Net assessment Andorra’s baseline is peace continuity. The country is a small, mountainous microstate with no standing armed forces and minimal strategic value as a military objective. Its most plausible exposure is indirect: disruption or coercion linked to wider European crises rather than a conflict centered on Andorra.

Threat drivers The main structural driver is geographic and economic dependence on France and Spain for access, trade, and security. If either neighbor faced a severe internal security emergency or interstate escalation, Andorra could experience border closures, policing surges, or logistical strain. A secondary driver is Europe-wide growth in cyber and hybrid activity against public institutions; Andorra’s small administration and high connectivity can create asymmetric vulnerability. These risks, however, more often produce espionage, service disruption, or criminality than armed conflict.

Resilience and systemic firebreaks Andorra benefits from strong external firebreaks: it is embedded in a stable Western European security environment and effectively sheltered by the deterrence posture of surrounding NATO territory, even though it is not a NATO member. Domestically, political stability indicators are high and there is no active insurgency, separatist conflict, or militarized factionalism. The state’s incentives are strongly status-quo oriented: tourism, finance, and cross-border labor flows all depend on predictability and cooperative relations.

Escalation pathways (low probability) Direct kinetic involvement would most plausibly require an extreme scenario: a major war reaching the Franco-Spanish border region, or deliberate use of Andorran territory for military purposes that triggers armed action. Given the absence of strategic depth, the lack of armed forces, and the high political costs for any actor to militarize a neutral microstate, this pathway remains remote.

Overall Threats are real but mostly non-kinetic and externally driven; resilience and firebreaks dominate. The three-year risk of significant armed conflict involving Andorra remains very low.